妈妈们的恐惧导致同性婚姻支持率下降 Same Sex Marriage Support is Falling, and Mums are Behind it

同性婚姻邮政公投五个星期后就截止了,我们独家报道,根据No阵营大型民意调查,支持票数,尤其来自妈妈们的支持票数呈自由落体式下降。

支持修改婚姻法的人数在四个星期的宣传后下降到51%,同时投No的人数上升到了37%。

这个民意调查在9月25日采样了1200位澳洲公民,误差范围2.5%。跟最近的新闻调查结果走向趋近。

WITH five weeks to go in the Same Sex Marriage postal plebiscite, the Yes vote is in free fall, especially among mothers, according to large-scale polling by the No campaign, revealed exclusively here.

Support for changing the Marriage Act has dropped to 51 per cent over the first four weeks of the campaign, with the No vote rising to 37 per cent.

The poll of 1200 people was taken on September 25, and has a margin of error of 2.5 per cent. It reflects a similar trajectory to a recent Newspoll.

Source原文:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/mums-fears-could-sink-samesex-marriage-push/news-story/c7ecd12e5d7fad04fb9034ed16154c10

这个动量模型表明同性婚姻合法化可能出人意料地失败。尽管昨天澳洲统计局发表的数据进60%的投票人已经投票,可能时间不够翻盘。

其中最关键的让人转投反对票的因素显然是同性婚姻和安全学校及性别理论的千丝万缕的联系。NO阵营宣传方案特别引用年轻的母亲去强调这一点。

这次民意调查显示,大量母亲们从支持转向了反对。

The momentum suggests the possibility of a shock defeat for gay marriage, although figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday show almost 60 per cent of voters have already cast their ballot, so time may be running out.

But one of the crucial issues swaying voters appears to be the link to Safe Schools and gender issues, which the No campaign has been highlighting in its ads, featuring young mums.

No Polling shows the “mother” demographic has had the most profound change of heart.

八月份有70%的人支持同性婚姻,到现在仅50%,四个星期中下降了20%。

这个调查结果和YES阵营民调本周得到的理想结果完全不一致,他们声称80%的妇女打算投支持票。

NO 阵营调查问到了受访者对安全学校的感觉,显示65%的受访者认为不应该教育孩子进行性别方面的探索。

而在八月份这个数字是60%,NO 阵营达到了预期的效果。

It began at 70 percent support for gay marriage in August and has collapsed to just 50 percent. That’s a 20 percent drop in four weeks. 

This contrasts to rosy research released by the Yes campaign this week, saying almost 80 per cent of women plan to vote yes.

When it comes to how voters feel about Safe Schools, No polling shows 65 per cent of voters do not think “Young children should be taught to explore gender attitudes”.

That’s up from 60 per cent in August, which shows the No campaign is hitting its mark.

最近发布的Facebook宣传片讲述了加拿大父亲Steve Tourloukis, 在一场历时7年的诉讼中败诉,他试图将自己的孩子从当地学校类似于安全学校课程退出的努力付之东流。

这个Facebook的宣传短片的达到了1,300,000点击率。

我这个星期跟远在渥大华的Tourloukis通了电话,请他解释为何同性婚姻合法化对于家长权力有影响。

他说加拿大2005年同性婚姻合法化,在公立学校的孩子们必须进行庆祝LGBTIQ性取向的教育,家长无权反对。声称异性婚姻是一种常态,会被贴上“顽固份子"的标签。

Its most recent Facebook ad features Canadian dad Steve Tourloukis, who has just lost his seven year legal battle to pull his children out of Safe Schools-style classes at their local school.

The ad has had 1.3 million Facebook views.

I asked Tourloukis this week on the phone from his home in Ontario to explain why the legalisation of gay marriage would affect parental rights.

He says in Canada, where same-sex marriage was legalised in 2005, children in public schools must be taught to “celebrate” LGBTIQ sexuality, and parents have no right to object. Any assertion that heterosexual relationships are the norm is labelled bigotry.

他举了些例子,在社会研究课上,学生要举行模拟同性婚姻婚礼,六年级的学生强制性地进行性玩具和群交教育。

“我正观察澳大利亚的同性婚姻争论,这实在是令人沮丧”,这位44岁的牙医,孩子现年13岁和11岁, 说道。

“澳大利亚的人民被误导了,认为投Yes, 对于异性婚姻中的人毫无影响”

“但是孩子们会接触到不合适的教育材料,而家长完全没有权利反对”

He cites examples of students being told to hold mock gay weddings in social studies classes and Year 6 children being taught mandatory lessons about sex toys and group sex.

“I’ve been watching the debate in Australia and it’s so frustrating,” said the 44-year-old dentist, whose children are now aged 13 and 11.

“People in Australia are being misled into thinking a Yes vote will have little or no effect on people who are not in a same-sex marriage.

“But kids are being exposed to inappropriate materials and parents have lost their rights.

“在加拿大,我们曾经非常天真。但澳大利亚人现在有一个机会来选择他们的未来。”

同性婚姻和安全学校计划是否存在联系,是邮政公投辩论中争论的最激烈的一个话题之一。

但Tourloukis说,他的诉讼对手,教师工会特别强调了两者之间密不可分的关系。

渥大华小学教师联合会在法庭上陈述,因为同性婚姻获得法律认可,教师们必须遵守法律,教育孩子们不仅仅宽容LGBTIQ生活方式,而且必须“庆祝”这个生活方式。

法官认为, Tourloukis的孩子教育选择权利被侵犯,但这种侵犯是合理的,因为政府学校必须鼓励“包容性”

当两种权利不能兼容,在加拿大,家长的权利被牺牲。

“In Canada we were naive… But Australians have an opportunity to choose their future”.

Whether there is a link between same-sex marriage and Safe Schools classes is one of the most contentious aspects of our postal plebiscite debate.

But Tourloukis says the link has specifically been made by the teachers’ union which has been opposing him in court.

The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario argued in court that since gay marriage is now the law, teachers are legally obliged to teach children not just to “tolerate” the LGBTQ lifestyle but to “celebrate” it.

A judge found Tourloukis’ rights had been violated with regard to choosing what his children should be taught, but the violation was “reasonable” because of the obligation of public schools to foster “inclusivity”.

When it came to competing rights, parents lost in Canada.